Academics suggest under 50s should emerge from lockdown first

Academics have highlighted the dangers of a general release from lockdown and suggest that a rolling release from lockdown based on age is the way to reduce deaths.

University of Warwick researchers Andrew Oswald and Nick Powdthavee have modelled the fatality risks faced by different age groups based on their analysis of data from China, Italy and the UK.

The researchers warn that in any general exit strategy from lockdown, fatalities among 50s would be 20 times higher than among 20 year olds and fatalities among 60 year olds would be around 50 times as great as among those in their early 20s.

They argue that a rolling age-release strategy where restrictions are lifted sequentially by age beginning with the youngest adults would be the safest way forward.

The new briefing paper, Age, death risk and the design of an exit strategy – a guide for policymakers and for citizens who want to stay alive, sets out five key benefits of this policy, including the need to reopen the economy in the safest way in the absence of a vaccine and the need for more time for researchers to work on a vaccine. Moreover, the researchers say it is the least likely strategy to require that people will have later to be painfully recalled into further rounds of lockdown, because in principle the young should be able to stay out once released. And it targets the young, the group currently the hardest-hit financially by lockdown.

Andrew Oswald, Professor of Economics and Behavioural Science at the University of Warwick, said: “People older than 50 do not realise the danger they are about to be in. Our age-risk graphs need to be understood by everyone. They show very clearly that younger people are at far less risk of dying from COVID-19 than older citizens.

“Any lockdown release policy that does not design itself around this “age gradient” in human coronavirus risk will have dangerous consequences.

“We hope that our analysis will be helpful to those policymakers reviewing options for lifting the lockdown, and also for citizens who wish to better understand their personal risk to make informed choices about what to do – and what not to do.”

The academics suggest support for the policy could include clear communication about the rationale for the strategy and online resources to help people understand their own personal risk profiles.

Nick Powdthavee, Professor of Behavioural Economics at Warwick Business School, said: “We believe that an age-based strategy along the lines we describe has the potential to strike the right balance between epidemiology and economics.

“Far from being left on the shelf, older workers can play a vital role as supervisors and mentors using the communication technologies which have come to the fore during lockdown.”

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